Where do we stand today, on election eve?<\/p>\n
Late yesterday, Gallup posted the following pre-election assessment: \u201cTaking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.\u201d \u00a0That would mean 238 Republican votes in the House next year, at the very least.<\/p>\n
As of this morning, Real Clear Politics\u2019 \u201cBattle for the Senate\u201d analysis projects a 50-50 Democrat-Republican outcome in the upper chamber. \u00a0Only a few days ago RCP had the Democrats at 52 seats in the new Senate. They still give the Democrats both West Virginia and California. \u00a0But with the wind blowing so powerfully the GOP\u2019s way, at least one and possibly both of those close races could go Republican, too.<\/p>\n
It isn\u2019t over \u2018til it\u2019s over. \u00a0The unions will be launching massive get-out-the-vote efforts, and with federally mandated same-day registration, they will surely manufacture tens of thousands of votes. \u00a0The trial lawyers are poised to pull a Franken all over the country, litigating every close vote count until the Democrat emerges a winner. \u00a0And who knows in how many states the electronic voting machines have been manipulated, as appears to have been discovered in Nevada?<\/p>\n
A five point-plus race is hard to steal. A blow out may not be counted as a blow out, but odds are high, it will be counted as a win. \u00a0So the key to winning tomorrow is to win big, which looks likely.<\/p>\n
Assuming a blow out, what happened? Two years ago, the mainstream media was reading the Republican Party\u2019s obituary. \u00a0What brought us here and where are we going?<\/p>\n
Here are three facts to keep in mind in the weeks ahead:<\/p>\n
Fact number one: Tuesday\u2019s win will not have happened overnight.<\/strong> Since the late 1990s, what might be called the Great American Swing Vote has been looking for elected officials who would restrain spending, keep taxes low, and produce budget surpluses. \u00a0This vote was part of the story of the 2000 election, when Al Gore walked away from the Clinton-GOP-Congress centrist legacy with his \u201cPeople versus the Powerful\u201d campaign, and the Great American Swing Vote turned to George W. Bush.<\/p>\n By 2005, pollsters were starting to find that a large group of GOP supporters from the prior two elections was becoming disaffected from the president and his Congress. \u00a0After the 2006 defeat, Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman was reported to have told his staff, \u201cWe got out our vote. They just voted for the other guys.\u201d \u00a0That disaffection built over the next two years, setting the stage for the Obama victory in 2008.<\/p>\n The new White House team could not have more thoroughly misread their election. \u00a0Their trillion-dollar stimulus, bailouts, health overhaul, and projected deficits drove the Great American Swing Vote back to the GOP. \u00a0The bad economy said to those voters that not only had all that money been spent but we got nothing for it.<\/p>\n Fact number two: \u00a0This year\u2019s vote will have been against the Democrats, not for the Republicans.<\/strong> After the cavalcade of trillions, the Great American Swing Vote fears the Obama-Reid-Pelosi Democrats. \u00a0But they don\u2019t trust the Republicans. \u00a0They know that following each campaign, the voice of the Dark Side rises. \u00a0Last July, in the political equivalent of Darth Vader\u2019s \u201cLuke, I am your father,\u201d former-Senate-majority-leader now-lobbyist Trent Lott said, \u201cWe don\u2019t need a lot of [Tea Party types]. \u00a0As soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them.\u201d<\/p>\n But if the new crop of Luke Skywalker’s heeds that corrupting call, the GOP could end up going the way of the Whigs. \u00a0The Great American Swing Vote may be just one election from rejecting both parties.<\/p>\n Fact number three: Something more than traditionally defined self-interest is moving in our politics.<\/strong> Around the world \u2013 for example, in Britain, Germany, France, and nearly in Australia — voters have been backing governments that will cut spending and put their nations on a financially sustainable, pro-growth footing. \u00a0They appear ready to take cuts in benefits to achieve this end, even to demand cuts. \u00a0In the United States, voters are calling for something else, as well: restricting government\u2019s power. Listening to the voices of 2010, you hear the fear that the terrifying run-up in spending doesn\u2019t just undermine the government\u2019s solvency. \u00a0It challenges the Constitutional system and compromises the nation\u2019s character.<\/p>\n In other words, the Great American Swing Vote cannot be bought with a bridge or an entitlement. \u00a0It is the highest-minded phenomenon American politics has produced in decades. \u00a0It is the determining force in American politics today, and when the new Congress convenes, it must be heard.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Where do we stand today, on election eve? Late yesterday, Gallup posted the following pre-election assessment: \u201cTaking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.\u201d \u00a0That would mean 238 Republican votes in the House […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-political-commentary-general","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=769"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":771,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769\/revisions\/771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}