{"id":691,"date":"2010-07-20T08:23:55","date_gmt":"2010-07-20T15:23:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/?p=691"},"modified":"2010-09-01T13:22:29","modified_gmt":"2010-09-01T20:22:29","slug":"distant-threats-closing-fast-hughhewitt-com-07-19-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/2010\/07\/20\/distant-threats-closing-fast-hughhewitt-com-07-19-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Distant Threats Closing Fast | HughHewitt.com | 07.19.10"},"content":{"rendered":"

With late Thursday\u2019s detonation of what Drudge on Sunday called a \u201c\u2019Hezbollah-like\u2019 car bomb\u201d in Ciudad Juarez, just across our southern border from El Paso, it is worth asking, are we preparing for the national security challenges ahead? (See Drudge-linked story here: http:\/\/tiny.cc\/kiqgg<\/a> )<\/p>\n

The border with Mexico is an obvious prize for anyone hoping to lower the U.S. profile in the world. When I served in the Reagan White House, it appeared to me likely that Soviet interest in Central America was aimed at ultimately destabilizing Mexico. \u00a0Severe unrest in Mexico would require the United States to position troops along the border, potentially compromising our ability to maintain a full-strength garrison in German or other Cold War focal points.<\/p>\n

Mexican authorities today are confronting the narco-terror challenge with a heroism that should command American admiration. \u00a0Mexico has evolved into two-party political system that, more nearly than ever before, is rooted in genuine popular sovereignty. \u00a0But this evolving system is being challenged, possibly by more than just the drug cartels. \u00a0Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and other global players who dislike an international system with the United States at its center have every reason to look for ways to stoke Mexico\u2019s chaos. \u00a0Reports are circulating that various combinations of them have already started to do just that.<\/p>\n

Mexico is just one emerging challenge. \u00a0Another is rising across the Pacific in China. \u00a0Consider a recent Parliamentary debate on British national security strategy. \u00a0The UK\u2019s new Secretary of Defense, Liam Fox, said that, despite today\u2019s focus on terrorism, a major state-to-state conflict involving U.K. forces could not be ruled out a decade or more off. \u00a0Given the list of other challenges that preceded this jolting assertion, he surely had in mind at least China. (Debate is here: http:\/\/tiny.cc\/z5hdj)<\/a> And given the nature of global relationships and security imperatives, he could at least as aptly have said the U.S. as the U.K.<\/p>\n

China today is much like Germany before the First World War. \u00a0An opening economy and limited democratization have led to breathtaking growth. \u00a0But, as in late 19th and early 20 century Germany, democratization such as it is does not extend to international affairs, where the military has ambitions.<\/p>\n

In the current Claremont Review of Books<\/em>, novelist and national security writer, Mark Helprin, draws out the China scenario with particular brilliance \u00a0(see: http:\/\/tiny.cc\/di6jq<\/a> ).<\/p>\n

As Helprin says, \u201cin the Western Pacific \u2026 the United States and China are on a collision course.\u201d He notes that a ten-fold increase in per capita GDP between 1988 and 2007 has produced a \u201ctwenty-one-fold purchasing power parity\u2026 increase in military expenditures.\u201d<\/p>\n

Helprin warns that the U.S. has let its carrier fleet decline by a third since 1987. Meanwhile, China is acquiring the ability to direct its 1,500 short-range missiles at our fleet in the event they decide to invade Taiwan. \u00a0He adds, \u201cHad we built more carriers, provided them with sufficient missile defense, not neglected anti-submarine warfare, and dared consider suppression of enemy satellites and protection of our own\u201d this challenge to our dominance of the western Pacific would not be possible.<\/p>\n

But as things stand, Helprin fears that the decade ahead will produce a \u201cwestern Pacific cleared of American naval and air forces\u201d, with a collapse of American alliances in the Pacific following. \u00a0Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and even Australia would adjust to the new reality of power: China in, America out.<\/p>\n

In a particularly insightful anticipation of next steps, Helprin sees China then moving to establish bases for its emerging blue water navy in Central and South America. \u201cWhat awaits us if we do not awake,\u201d he concludes, \u201cis potentially devastating, and those who think the subtle, indirect pressures of domination inconsequential might inquire of the Chinese their opinion of the experience.\u201d<\/p>\n

Military strength ultimately depends on economic and financial strength. \u00a0In the last two years, the weighting of resources has moved from national security to, oh, I don\u2019t know, a crushingly expensive health care plan that the nation doesn\u2019t want and a trillion dollar stimulus package that doesn\u2019t work. \u00a0And we have moved towards spending levels and a debt burden that will soon dwarf anything before.<\/p>\n

The Juarez bomb should be our wake up call. \u00a0New kinds of threats, new orders of hazard are coming our way. \u00a0If we are to meet and best them in the next decade, we must have both appropriate security assets and the financial strength to support them.<\/p>\n

The simple, obvious, and yet very much in doubt question is not just will we, but, given our profligacy, can we.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With late Thursday\u2019s detonation of what Drudge on Sunday called a \u201c\u2019Hezbollah-like\u2019 car bomb\u201d in Ciudad Juarez, just across our southern border from El Paso, it is worth asking, are we preparing for the national security challenges ahead? (See Drudge-linked story here: http:\/\/tiny.cc\/kiqgg ) The border with Mexico is an obvious prize for anyone hoping […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-global-issues","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=691"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":741,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/691\/revisions\/741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}