{"id":1506,"date":"2013-02-12T09:45:35","date_gmt":"2013-02-12T16:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/?p=1506"},"modified":"2013-02-12T09:48:34","modified_gmt":"2013-02-12T16:48:34","slug":"what-will-tonights-sotu-tell-us-ricochet-com-2-112-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/2013\/02\/12\/what-will-tonights-sotu-tell-us-ricochet-com-2-112-12\/","title":{"rendered":"What Will Tonight&#8217;s SOTU Tell Us? | Ricochet.com | 2.12.12"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Do we even need to ask? \u00a0Mr. Obama&#8217;s recent inaugural address was 1937 all over again. \u00a0It seems government can achieve anything by decree, except revive the sick economy. \u00a0This SOTU is being advertised as a &#8220;bookend&#8221; to the inaugural &#8212; bookends without books, I suppose. \u00a0Mainly, as with after-the-fact edits to the Congressional Record, the president will amend and expand his previous remarks.<\/p>\n<p>But, in my role as a speech bookie, recording bets and placing them, here is the book as I see it for tonight:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>SOTU addresses normally kick off a president&#8217;s legislative agenda for the year ahead. \u00a0On it surface, so will this one. \u00a0The reality will be different.<\/li>\n<li>Looking through the White House&#8217;s pre-positioned proposals, something peculiar is pocketed in the vest of each major item: a poison pill.<\/li>\n<li>Consider immigration. \u00a0If you read the president&#8217;s recent speech in Las Vegas, or the talking points his staff distributed to accompany it, Mr. Obama and the Senate Gang of Eight (or six, depending on who&#8217;s counting) are of one mind. \u00a0Kumbaya.<\/li>\n<li>Not so fast. \u00a0The Gang of Whatever&#8217;s core compromise was a certifiably secure border \u00a0to precede (security first was the left&#8217;s concession)\u00a0a rapid path to a green card (an innovation) and a slow but clear path to citizenship (the right&#8217;s concession). \u00a0Without a concession on each side and the introduction of widely distributed green cards as holding place for those already here, the deal could not have been done.<\/li>\n<li>Yet even before the President delivered his speech, the White House let it be known that this part of the deal (the core of the agreement) was unacceptable. \u00a0In essence, the president agreed to everything, except what was essential.<\/li>\n<li>Poison pills are all over the place.<\/li>\n<li>On the deficit, having \u00a0got a tax increase with few if any real spending cuts in the fiscal-cliff stand off, now the president wants to raise taxes again, and on the same people, the so-called rich &#8212; a non-starter for the GOP.<\/li>\n<li>On the sequester, expect the president to sound like the soul of reason tonight but in the end to say that any and all spending cuts to head off the sequester are off the table. \u00a0He will frame GOP intransigence as the cause of whatever bad happens when the sequester kicks in.<\/li>\n<li>His goal will be to position Republicans in Congress as obstructionist, then to pummel them in the media until those from marginal districts and states buckle. \u00a0Divide and humiliate, ultimately (in the 2014 elections) conquer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But will it work? \u00a0Much will depend on public response, which in turn will depend in part on the media &#8212; and on this last we all may be in for a surprise.<\/p>\n<p>In media interviews on this issue over the past week I have been arguing that poison-pill strategies are not normal or constructive. \u00a0Facing a Congress in the hands of the other party as he started his second term, Bill Clinton was accommodating, not confrontational. \u00a0Facing a divided Congress, so was Ronald Reagan. \u00a0The results: Reagan achieved tax reform. \u00a0Had it not been for the scandal he brought on himself, Clinton could have achieved Social Security reform. \u00a0Today, with one house of Congress in the hands of the opposition (in this sense, the election was a tie), the president is playing as if he held all the cards.<\/p>\n<p>The surprise, at least to me, has been that in interviews I have encountered almost no push back to this line of argument. \u00a0Almost no, but &#8220;isn&#8217;t the Republicans fault.&#8221; \u00a0The Washington press corps runs as a herd, one that makes sudden, sharp, entirely unexpected turns in an instant. \u00a0Perhaps out of boredom, this herd may be ready to turn. \u00a0Will it?<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s another thing about the DC press corps. \u00a0I said it influences public opinion (yes, I know, not a stunning insight), but it works the other way, too. \u00a0 As much as with the politicians, public opinion drives it. \u00a0 The Washington media see the president as popular now. \u00a0But if that changes &#8212; if no bounce comes from the speech and if his poll numbers turn soft &#8212; their support for Mr. Obama could change, too.<\/p>\n<p>I am not saying that the members of the MSM will morph into Sean Hannitys or Rush Limbaughs, fierce and coherent critics from the right. \u00a0I am saying that, to me, they feel poised to say that the president (either by way of design or ineptness) is Washington&#8217;s principal obstructor.<\/p>\n<p>Even the most torrid love affairs can turn tedious. \u00a0You can feel it when the thrill is starting to go. \u00a0This one could have a new burst of passion or turn to ashes. \u00a0But that&#8217;s the point. \u00a0On the morning before the president delivers this year&#8217;s SOTU address, it could go either way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Do we even need to ask? \u00a0Mr. Obama&#8217;s recent inaugural address was 1937 all over again. \u00a0It seems government can achieve anything by decree, except revive the sick economy. \u00a0This SOTU is being advertised as a &#8220;bookend&#8221; to the inaugural &#8212; bookends without books, I suppose. \u00a0Mainly, as with after-the-fact edits to the Congressional Record, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[60,59,104,119],"class_list":["post-1506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-communication-strategy","tag-obama","tag-sotu","tag-speech","tag-state-of-the-union"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1506"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1511,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506\/revisions\/1511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}