By Monday next week, all eyes will be turned to Denver and the Russian roulette convention that the Clintons have now forced on Team Obama.\u00a0 The GOP presidential nominating meeting starts the following Monday.\u00a0 So this is the last week of the long primary and post-primary season before the traditional campaign begins.\u00a0 How does the race for the White House look today?<\/p>\n
Going into this past weekend, the candidates were effectively tied.\u00a0 Whether you rely on the Real Clear Politics average of polls or the Rasmussen or Gallup daily trackings, what only a couple of months ago looked like an Obama walk-away is now a margin-of-error match-up.<\/p>\n
How the candidates come out of this weekend is another matter.\u00a0 The nationally televised Showdown at Saddleback — one of the most intelligent and civilized presidential candidate events ever staged (ever, as in as far back as 1788) \u2013 turned out to be an almost no-contest McCain win.\u00a0 The Arizona senator came off as direct and detailed in his answers, confident and commanding in his presence and in sync with his audience.\u00a0 In contrast, though ever the elegant presenter, Barak Obama seemed to slip from his famous eloquence into what sounded more like a loquacious evasiveness.\u00a0 The worst moment came when he sidestepped the question of when life begins \u2013 a question at the heart of the life v. abortion debate \u2013 saying it was above his pay grade. He is running for president of the United States.\u00a0 There is no higher pay grade.<\/p>\n
As we all know, McCain faces two big political tasks \u2013 energizing skeptical GOP voters while winning over Independents.\u00a0 The mainstream media has portrayed this as a combining of incompatibles. Saturday\u2019s forum showed why it might not prove such a conundrum.\u00a0 In forcefully championing lower taxes, less federal spending, global trade, life and an unapologetic enthusiasm for America as humanity\u2019s last best hope, he reminded former GOP voters and current lukewarm supporters of why they have so often backed the Republican project.\u00a0\u00a0 For a faltering economy that is and can only be driven by entrepreneurship and global trade and for a world facing threats ranging from al Qaeda terrorism to Russian troop movements, he came off as the right candidate for the present danger.<\/p>\n
But whether or not the polls open up in McCain\u2019s favor this coming week, Obama has three big moves yet to make on the political chessboard.<\/p>\n
The first is his pick of a running mate.\u00a0 Last week, I suggested former Michigan governor John Engler as a match for McCain.\u00a0 This sparked a vigorous online debate, much of it regarding former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. To me, both Romney and Engler would help McCain achieve what I see as essential strategic goals \u2013 flip Michigan to the GOP column, give the ticket an experienced voice on economic issues, and energize voters who are truly concerned about the family values agenda.<\/p>\n
Obama\u2019s V.P. choice could move the race even more.\u00a0 For example, imagine if the Illinois senator were to pick as his running mate Florida senator Bill Nelson.\u00a0 How can GOP win this year without Florida, which polls show tied? With Nelson on the ticket, Republicans would have to throw huge dollars into holding the must-win state. The point here is that Obama\u2019s choice could have more impact on this close campaign than anyone has yet imagined.\u00a0 A running mate from Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico or any of several other states could change the contest\u2019s dynamics.<\/p>\n
Obama\u2019s second big potential chess move is ethnicity \u2013 race.\u00a0 Ethnicity is almost certainly a net plus for his candidacy. It insures record turnout in the nation\u2019s most heavily Democratic minority group.\u00a0 It also pulls to Obama upscale suburban independents who see him as a vehicle for putting racial divisions permanently behind the country. If on economics and national security grounds that groups starts to stray, subtle reminders of this aspiration can pull them back.<\/p>\n
Finally, Obama has money \u2013 far, far more than McCain will have.\u00a0 And he hasn\u2019t even begun to unleash it.\u00a0 The real spending will probably start right after Labor Day. And the McCain campaign will need to show even more cleverness than they have to date to make up for the gap in dollars.<\/p>\n
So as the campaign stands today, McCain has scored big points on issues.\u00a0 But Obama holds in reserve big resources, including big money, that McCain can\u2019t match.\u00a0\u00a0 In a year that should favor the Democrats hands down, the polls have the contest tied.\u00a0 Let the contest begin.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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