In this up and down year, last night\u2019s South Carolina GOP debate turned the political world upside down again.<\/p>\n
Going into the debate, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had every reason to believe that he was within days of locking up the nomination. \u00a0He had won (if just barely) the Iowa caucuses and more convincingly the New Hampshire primary. \u00a0A win in South Carolina this coming Saturday would help cement his lead in Florida, the next state to vote. Running the early-state table would almost certainly result in a collapse of the other major campaigns. \u00a0The game would be over just as it began.<\/p>\n
Now it is not such a sure bet. \u00a0For one thing, as early as today Iowa will certify its final tally. \u00a0You\u2019ve no doubt heard the rumors by now that, as of Monday afternoon, Santorum had pulled ahead of Mitt. \u00a0No one is ready to say the lead won\u2019t shift again as the last counties report, and whatever the outcome, the margin will surely remain a sliver. But at this hour (shortly after midnight) there is a reasonable chance that Santorum will pick up Iowa bragging rights, and Romney will not be able to claim a historic win in the first two states.<\/p>\n
After last night, South Carolina can be considered up for grabs, too. \u00a0It is not that Romney had a poor debate. \u00a0I thought he was splendid, his best performance yet, and not by accident. \u00a0Beginning a couple of debates ago, he started to articulate a genuine vision of the nation and its future, a major advance in how he presented himself and his case. His election night victory speech in New Hampshire built on this new sense of compass and left me, at least feeling confident he would be a highly effective standard bearer in the fall.<\/p>\n
Add on top of that the damage that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich\u2019s assaults on Romney have been doing to Gingrich himself. \u00a0Throughout the week in which the Gingrich camp\u2019s ads against Bain Capital (the private equity firm Romney founded) were running, Republicans of all persuasions had been recoiling. \u00a0Whether they can find the words for it or not, nearly all Republicans understand the distinction between profit and rents. \u00a0Profit is when you run a business that brings in more than it spends, and does this by careful management and giving customers what they need and want. \u00a0Rents are when you make your money by getting government to rig the game.<\/p>\n
The anger at Wall Street (at least in conservative circles) in the wake of the financial crisis comes from a widespread belief that the profits the great financial houses claimed in recent years were really rents, the result of a government manipulated game that, as the saying went, socialized losses and privatized gains. We can debate the justice of the indictment, but no one believes Mitt Romney played in markets where the cards were stacked in his favor. \u00a0And last night he was, I thought, entirely convincing going through the investments Bain Capital had made, showing, for example, that under his management the firm had invested in a number of steel mills, at least one of which they turned into a success.<\/p>\n