{"id":1060,"date":"2011-11-29T14:01:54","date_gmt":"2011-11-29T21:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/?p=1060"},"modified":"2012-10-16T08:07:45","modified_gmt":"2012-10-16T15:07:45","slug":"two-polls-show-what-is-driving-the-gop-presidential-race-hughhewitt-com-11-29-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/2011\/11\/29\/two-polls-show-what-is-driving-the-gop-presidential-race-hughhewitt-com-11-29-11\/","title":{"rendered":"Two Polls Show What is Driving the GOP Presidential Race | HughHewitt.com | 11.29.11"},"content":{"rendered":"

The best poll for grasping the ups and downs of the Republican presidential contest ran in the National Journal<\/em> magazine in late October (http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/7nnvpw3<\/a>) and has been updated several times since (http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/d92zrqh).<\/a><\/p>\n

In prior columns I have argued that GOP voters in this cycle are breaking differently than in 2008, when there were distinctly social, economic and national security voters.<\/p>\n

In 2008, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won the social issue voters but was unacceptable to Republicans in the other two camps. \u00a0No candidate clearly captured the economic voters. \u00a0Arizona senator John McCain won the national security vote and was acceptable to both social issue and economic conservatives. \u00a0So McCain won the nomination.<\/p>\n

This year GOP primary voters are dividing on a line that looks more like the divide between Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush Republicans in the 1980 primaries. \u00a0The line of separation this year is no longer ideological. \u00a0Republicans are broadly of a common mind on what the country will need after four years of catastrophically misguided Democratic rule, for the first two years both on Capitol Hill and in the White House. But they have different attitudes about tone, style and intensity.<\/p>\n

To me it has seemed that those who look like the Bush voters of 1980 have gone to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Those who look like the Reagan voters of almost thirty-two years ago have been searching. \u00a0At first a few parked with Minnesota congresswoman Michelle Bachman. \u00a0When Texas governor Rick Perry entered the race, they rushed to him. \u00a0Then Perry fumbled in debate, all but announcing that he was unprepared to be president, and they rushed to business executive and radio talk host Herman Cain. \u00a0When Cain\u2019s made it clear that he, too lacked the background for the presidency, they looked around again.<\/p>\n

By that time the buzz was building about former House speaker Newt Gingrich. \u00a0In debates, he emerged again and again as the most knowledgeable, cool headed, and clear about policy of all the candidates on the stage. \u00a0Soon the Reaganesque vote was moving his way.<\/p>\n

All of this I inferred from everything I was seeing. But now the National Journal<\/em> has attached numbers to the hunch. In a series of polls they have asked likely GOP primary voters their attitudes about the Tea Party. \u00a0Nor surprisingly, half of GOP voters responded that they looked favorably on the Tea Party. \u00a0Forty five percent were neutral, five percent hostile.<\/p>\n

The NJ<\/em> grouped neutrals and hostiles together and then tracked the candidate preferences of pro-Tea Party versus the neutral\/hostile voters. \u00a0As you can see from the first link above, the neutral\/hostile group has gone to Romney. \u00a0The pro-Tea Party voters have bounced around, usually giving overall GOP leader or number two status to their favorite of the moment. \u00a0At the second link above you can see that their favorite now is Gingrich, and, of course, he is leading in the overall polls.<\/p>\n

This is not to say that the game is up. \u00a0To date Romney has failed to give a coherent rationale for his candidacy. \u00a0His changing issue stances has left many Republicans worried that in office he won\u2019t follow through on cutting spending, regulations and taxes. But, as columnist William McGurn notes in this morning\u2019s Wall Street Journal<\/em>, he could turn his standing as a dazzlingly successful businessman into a plus in this economy and his knowledge of finance into unchallengeable bona fides for putting the nation\u2019s spending and balance sheet in order. \u00a0He has not to date, but if he were to play to his strengths, he might reestablish himself as the frontrunner in short order. \u00a0People are still listening.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, many continue to worry about Gingrich\u2019s capacity for boneheaded moves. \u00a0The significance of the debates is that they have given him a showcase to put what you might call the New Newt on display. \u00a0He is more likeable than people remember. \u00a0He has a manner on stage that fits well with the kind of personality we look for in presidents.<\/p>\n

Here is a test. \u00a0Think of all the general election match ups sine 1980: Reagan versus Carter, Reagan versus Mondale and so on through Obama versus McCain. Ask yourself, which candidate had the best temperament for the office? \u00a0Not which did I agree with on issues? \u00a0We are talking about temperament here. \u00a0In almost all cases (Bush versus Clinton is the major exception), when I have asked this question of both Republicans and Democrats, the ultimate winner in each election has been the consensus pick.<\/p>\n

It is fair to say that Romney long ago established that he passes the temperament test against Mr. Obama. \u00a0In the debates of the past several months, Gingrich has established that, alone among the candidates who excite the Tea Party half of the party, he passes it, too.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The best poll for grasping the ups and downs of the Republican presidential contest ran in the National Journal magazine in late October (http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/7nnvpw3) and has been updated several times since (http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/d92zrqh). In prior columns I have argued that GOP voters in this cycle are breaking differently than in 2008, when there were distinctly social, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-1060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politicalcommentary-campaign-2012","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1060"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1060\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1399,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1060\/revisions\/1399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}