{"id":1042,"date":"2011-10-31T08:29:09","date_gmt":"2011-10-31T15:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/?p=1042"},"modified":"2012-10-16T08:08:02","modified_gmt":"2012-10-16T15:08:02","slug":"gingrich-and-the-logic-of-the-2012-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/2011\/10\/31\/gingrich-and-the-logic-of-the-2012-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Gingrich and the Logic of the 2012 Race | HughHewitt.com | 10.31.11"},"content":{"rendered":"

All of a sudden, Newt Gingrich is the talk of the GOP presidential contest. \u00a0A story anticipating his resurgence ran on the front page of Sunday\u2019s Washington Post<\/em>. \u00a0This was not too many days after Weekly Standard<\/em> editor William Kristol first suggested that the former speaker of the House might be getting a second look from Republican primary voters.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s going on here? Wasn\u2019t Gingrich left for politically dead when his staff walked out in June? \u00a0And in the last few weeks haven\u2019t the major media all but anointed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as the inevitable Republican pick?<\/p>\n

But Romney has problems. \u00a0All year the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls has pegged him the pick of 20 to 25 percent of Republican primary voters, never less, never more. \u00a0Recently some polls have shown him the second choice of a large number of Republicans. \u00a0If correct, Romney should start to surge after Iowa.<\/p>\n

Several of the weakest candidates will drop out following the Iowa caucuses. \u00a0Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman are prime prospects to head for the exits. \u00a0They are simply not catching fire \u2013 or even showing glowing embers. Someplace between Iowa and South Carolina, each will have to face that 2012 will not be their year. \u00a0Even if they don\u2019t face it, their donors and supporters will. \u00a0If those backers move in numbers to Romney (you\u2019ll know it\u2019s started if his GOP support in the polls breaks 30 percent), Romney will be the nominee.<\/p>\n

But if Romney’s support stays locked at 25 percent or less, look for Gingrich to move up. Grasping why many expect his support to rocket doesn\u2019t require rocket science.<\/p>\n

Divided in this election cycle less by policy preferences than stylistic ones, GOP voters are falling into two clusters reminiscent of a generation ago. \u00a0One looks a lot like George H.W. Bush\u2019s 1980 primary backers and has gone to Romney. \u00a0The other looks like Ronald Reagan\u2019s in the same year. \u00a0It is still shopping.<\/p>\n

So far in 2011, these people have flirted with Bachman, left her for Perry, then in large measure left Perry for Cain. \u00a0They are searching for a leader with the clarity to define an agenda for cutting federal spending and regulation and making the tax system more friendly to economic growth — and the strength to see it through. \u00a0Perry is strong willed, but his debate performances have raised doubts about his overall abilities. \u00a0Many see Cain as that leader.<\/p>\n

Many, but far from most \u2013 and, like Romney, Cain may have reached the limits of his support. His problem is not Karl Rove\u2019s white board detailing his errors on the stump and in debates (although the ad in which his campaign manager smokes could define his campaign as terminally bungling). Nor is it this morning\u2019s allegations of sexual harassment while heading the National Restaurant Association. \u00a0A brief critique at RealClearPolitics.com (http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/3olpdy8)<\/a> finds the stories \u201cnot well sourced\u201d and concerning gestures \u201cthat weren\u2019t sexual in nature,\u201d a media hit job. \u00a0Rather Cain\u2019s problem is history: every president ever elected has served as a vice president, senator, governor, congressman, cabinet secretary, or general. \u00a0Cain has not.<\/p>\n

With dangers gathering overseas, a global debt crisis and the economy still effectively in a deep recession, how likely is it that the party will tap a political first-timer for the White House? \u00a0The Democrats did that in 2008. \u00a0It is an open secret in Washington that many leading Democrats now believe the president is not up to the job. \u00a0He is intelligent, they acknowledge, but entered office with far too little experience, and it continues to show, badly.<\/p>\n

Yes, Perry is struggling to recover his early magic. \u00a0But many GOP voters are wary — and now he says he will be ducking at least half of the coming debates. \u00a0That is not the road to recovery.<\/p>\n

So who in the GOP field has the intellect that many now feel Perry lacks and the experience that Cain needs? \u00a0Romney? Yes, whatever else you think of him, he clearly has both. \u00a0Anyone else? Gingrich.<\/p>\n

Here is the fact about all the Gingrich talk. \u00a0It rests on the logic of the race, on plotting coming moves on the political chessboard. \u00a0Beset by inherent weaknesses, Romney and Cain (RealClearPolitics.com shows them statistically tied) look like candidates who may have topped out. \u00a0If so, in the rest of the field, only Gingrich is positioned to take up the slack.<\/p>\n

This race is just starting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All of a sudden, Newt Gingrich is the talk of the GOP presidential contest. \u00a0A story anticipating his resurgence ran on the front page of Sunday\u2019s Washington Post. \u00a0This was not too many days after Weekly Standard editor William Kristol first suggested that the former speaker of the House might be getting a second look […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-1042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politicalcommentary-campaign-2012","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1042"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1400,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions\/1400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}