Tomorrow night\u2019s GOP presidential candidates debate at Dartmouth College will be do or die for Rick Perry. \u00a0What accounts for the Texas governor\u2019s rapid rise and, to date, equally rapid fall? \u00a0Where does the Republican race go from here?<\/p>\n
As noted in last week\u2019s column, two clusters of voters have emerged in the 2011 phase of the Republican presidential contest.<\/p>\n
Not so much an ideological divide as one of taste and temperament, one cluster looks like those who backed Ronald Reagan in 1980, the other like those who backed George H.W. Bush. \u00a0This is not to say that the people are the same. \u00a0With thirty-one years having passed, most of the actual voters who supported each man are off the scene. \u00a0And the party is probably more united now on specific issue positions than it was then.<\/p>\n
Still, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney captured the Bush cluster early on. \u00a0The Reagan cluster has been searching for a champion, which is why Minnesota congresswoman Michelle Bachman had her surge. \u00a0It is not clear that the Reaganesque voters ever saw her as a viable candidate. \u00a0But even after her weaknesses began to reveal themselves, she served as a good placeholder until someone better emerged.<\/p>\n
A month and a half ago, that someone looked like Governor Perry. \u00a0With deep and spectacularly successful experience as the nation\u2019s longest serving governor in the state that had created nearly half of all the nation\u2019s net new jobs during the current economic downturn, Mr. Perry was a forceful limited-government man with a record of results. \u00a0What more could the Reagan cluster want?<\/p>\n
If the presidency were just a super governorship, the answer would have been \u201cnothing more.\u201d But, even if he doesn\u2019t enter office deeply schooled in foreign affairs, a president must have the steadiness, acuity, and depth of character to handle the country\u2019s national security challenges. \u00a0The party and the nation will not vote for a man who fails to measure up.<\/p>\n
To see what I mean, reflect on presidential elections from, say, 1960. \u00a0Think of the Republican and Democratic nominees. Set aside the issue positions of each man. \u00a0Focus on temperament \u2013 and ask yourself, which man displayed the better temperament for the job? If you are like me, some of your calls will be very close. \u00a0But I think you will answer \u2013 I know I do — that whenever the call has been reasonably clear, the man with the better temperament, meaning the man you would trust more in a crisis, prevailed.<\/p>\n
In his deteriorating performance over his first three presidential debates, Governor Perry raised questions about whether he was too limited a man for office he sought. \u00a0So since mid-September he has lost half his support in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls. \u00a0Tomorrow night he has a chance to turn himself around. \u00a0But it is a last chance. \u00a0If he fails, the Reagan cluster will write him off. \u00a0He will be out of the race, even if he doesn\u2019t know it.<\/p>\n
The Reagan cluster has already started to look for a new champion, which accounts for the move of businessman Herman Cain to the RealClearPolitics number two spot (though, with less than a percentage point dividing them, he is effectively tied with Governor Perry). \u00a0Yet other than generals and cabinet officers, all presidents in American history have been previously elected officials — vice presidents, governors, and senators. \u00a0Mr. Cain is amazingly surefooted for a first-time candidate for any office, much less president. But how likely is it that the party will turn to someone with no government experience \u2013 zero — in the middle of a severe economic downturn, a national debt crisis, and a continuing engagement of U.S. troops in fighting overseas?<\/p>\n
The stage is set, then, for one of the other candidates to make a big move. \u00a0Which one?<\/p>\n
When polling of the GOP field began nearly a year ago, 22.6 percent of Republicans questioned supported Governor Romney. \u00a0Today 21.8 percent do. \u00a0The former governor needs to break into the Reagan cluster, which he has failed to do so far. \u00a0If his support rises over thirty percent, it will mean he has at last, and he will be the nominee.<\/p>\n
Other candidates will be getting a second look, too. \u00a0Florida\u2019s decision to move its primary to late January has jumbled the primary calendar. \u00a0But whenever the voting begins, probably in early January now, who\u2019s up and who\u2019s down could look very different than it does today.<\/p>\n
Hold on. \u00a0It\u2019s going to be a bumpy rise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tomorrow night\u2019s GOP presidential candidates debate at Dartmouth College will be do or die for Rick Perry. \u00a0What accounts for the Texas governor\u2019s rapid rise and, to date, equally rapid fall? \u00a0Where does the Republican race go from here? As noted in last week\u2019s column, two clusters of voters have emerged in the 2011 phase […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-1029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-political-commentary-general","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1029"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1031,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1029\/revisions\/1031"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}