Odds are that New Jersey governor Chris Christie will jump into the presidential race today (Tuesday) or tomorrow \u2013 which says a lot about how the 2012 GOP presidential primary contest has shaped up, and where it will go. \u00a0Christie\u2019s entry could change everything.<\/p>\n
The 2012 dynamics are totally different from those of 2008. \u00a0And it\u2019s a good thing, too.<\/p>\n
Last time around, the GOP voters broke into three issue-oriented groups \u2013 those who gave priority to economics, to social issues, and to national security.<\/p>\n
No candidate clearly won the economic voters. \u00a0They should have been the ticket to the nomination for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney or former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani. \u00a0But when the conductor came around, both their tickets were missing.<\/p>\n
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee cornered the market on social issue voters. \u00a0But Huckabee had nothing of substance to say about security and called for economic policies unacceptable to most Republicans.<\/p>\n
That left the field open to Arizona senator and ultimate nominee John McCain, who won national security voters as convincingly as Huckabee won social issue voters. While he was not the first choice of those who put taxes, spending, and other economic policies first, McCain was good-enough \u2013 though barely good enough — \u00a0for them, as he was for social issue voters. \u00a0So he got the party\u2019s nod.<\/p>\n
This time it\u2019s different.<\/p>\n
The Obama administration\u2019s catastrophic fiscal, monetary, regulatory, and trade policies (have they done anything right in this sphere?) have given economics top priority in virtually everyone\u2019s mind. \u00a0The next president and congress must move quickly to undo the damage they\u2019ve done. \u00a0Spending must be cut. Growth-inducing tax rates must be installed. \u00a0Arbitrary and massively destructive environmental, financial, and a long list from other categories of regulations must be cancelled. \u00a0Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and (my candidate for the list) Sarbanes-Oxley must be repealed. \u00a0I could go on. \u00a0But you get the idea. \u00a0This is not 2008.<\/p>\n
To make matters worse, GOP voters are trying to get their minds around a developing national security crisis. \u00a0The missions in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down, but no one believes the region has ceased to be a serious source of threats. \u00a0Meanwhile, our military\u2019s capacity is declining. \u00a0China\u2019s is rising — and becoming aggressive. \u00a0At the same time, an alliance appears to be forming among such bad actors as Iran, Venezuela, and various criminal and terrorist groups. \u00a0The Europeans are degenerating into empty allies with little will and almost no capacity. \u00a0The jury remains out on whether the U.K. fits that characterization, too.<\/p>\n
So in the world of 2012, GOP voters are looking for a candidate who solidly checks the economic box and has the strength to deal with the rising global challenges. \u00a0And there isn\u2019t enough room among the candidates for social issues to play major differentiating role in winning the nomination.<\/p>\n
Three weeks ago, it looked as though Republican voters were dividing into two clusters. \u00a0One looked a lot like the people who backed Ronald Reagan for the nomination in 1980, the other like those who backed George H. W. Bush the same year. \u00a0The Bush cluster was more or less supporting Romney. \u00a0The Reagan cluster was starting to coalesce around Texas governor Rick Perry. \u00a0But then Perry stumbled in debates. \u00a0Pressure began to build for Christie to enter the race.<\/p>\n
Christie has the capacity to unite the two clusters, a feat none of the other candidates is even close to pulling off.<\/p>\n
Early this year, he captured the imagination of the Republican Party and conservative movement with the way he took on badgering teachers in town hall meetings. The YouTube videos (one has received more than a million views) of his respectful but tough, clear, and persuasive manner in confronting teachers-union-inspired challenges won him wide admiration. At the C-PAC convention in February, his was the only name that drew spontaneous cheers whenever it was uttered.<\/p>\n
Then there was his triumphant performance at the Reagan Library last week \u2013 the very best American political performance in years \u2013 and the implicit endorsement he received from Ronald Reagan\u2019s widow Nancy. \u00a0The next day Christie was reported to have also taken calls urging him to run from former First Lady Barbara Bush and her son, former president George W. Bush.<\/p>\n
As of this morning, the GOP race is down to four men. Going by the latest Rasmussen polls, Romney and Christie are effectively tied with the president. \u00a0Business executive Herman Cain is five points behind Mr. Obama. \u00a0Perry lags by six. No one else counts.<\/p>\n
But if he can unite and energize the Reagan and Bush clusters and despite the move of the Florida primary to January, Christie\u2019s actual entrance into the race has the capacity to change everything.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Odds are that New Jersey governor Chris Christie will jump into the presidential race today (Tuesday) or tomorrow \u2013 which says a lot about how the 2012 GOP presidential primary contest has shaped up, and where it will go. \u00a0Christie\u2019s entry could change everything. The 2012 dynamics are totally different from those of 2008. \u00a0And […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-1025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-political-commentary-general","tag-hugh-hewitt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1025"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1027,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025\/revisions\/1027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.clarkjudge.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}